Results Of The “Proof Is In The Pudding” Progeny Test Seeking to Evaluate the EBV and EPD Systems

Many Wagyu producers have often wondered how well the Australian Wagyu Association (“AuWA”) Estimated Breeding Values (“EBV”) and American Wagyu Association Estimated Progeny Differences (“EPD”) genomic evaluation rankings correlate with actual offspring results.  In other words, how well do EBVs predict the outcome for the measured trait?

If a Wagyu producer breeds some of their cows to a bull that has a relatively higher EBV (or EPD) for Marbling, and some of their cows to a bull that has a relatively lower EBV (or EPD) for Marbling, they would expect the offspring from the calves sired by the relatively higher-ranked bull to have relatively better actual marbling, compared to offspring from breedings from the bull with a relatively lower Marbling rank, right?  EBV and EPD “numbers” are supposed to predict how the offspring of an animal should be influenced by such parent.  Do they?

The primary purpose of this particular progeny test was to evaluate how well EBVs and EPDs do at predicting actual outcomes in offspring for four measured carcass attributes.

The highly respected and well-documented foundation sire Itoshigenami TF148 was used as a reference sire to evaluate the actual carcass results from his offspring and offspring of a number of “high-EBV” newer bulls when bred to a group of highly consistent Red Angus cows to make 50% Wagyu offspring, which were then raised together, fed together and harvested together on the same day.

Four carcass attributes were evaluated, including hot carcass weight, marbling, ribeye size and yield grade. No attempt has been made to express an opinion on the results, but rather the results are simply set forth in detail, with each evaluated bull ranked for each attribute, and the results shown alongside the currently-published EBVs and EPDs.

The results of this progeny test can be viewed in a viewable and printable PDF file AVAILABLE AT THIS LINK.